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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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